Karen Felzer

Karen Felzer is a research scientist on the Earthquake Hazards team. Her research involves using statistical techniques to study earthquakes, with a focus on earthquake interaction. This has included work on long distance triggering of aftershocks by small earthquakes, stress shadows (or the lack thereof), foreshocks, multiplets, and secondary aftershocks. Karen is also doing work on earthquake magnitude frequency distributions and is part of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities.
 

Free computer programs for download

Stochastic/ETAS aftershock and earthquake catalog simulation program for matlab users!
Go to the download page Here

Papers and Abstracts

In Press

Felzer, Karen R., Pulverization provides a mechanism for the nucleation of earthquakes at low stress on strong faults, Frontiers in Earth Science <\i>, doi: 10.3389/feart.2014.00020, 2014.
journal link to text

Publications

Felzer, Karen R., The UCERF3 Earthquake Catalog, Appendix K in The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF 3), The Time-Independent Model, USGS Open File Report 2013-1165, 2013.
UCERF3 Report

Felzer, Karen R., Estimate of the seismicity rate and magnitude-frequency distribution of earthquakes in California from 1850 to 2011, Appendix L in The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3), The Time Indpedent Model, USGS Open File Report 2013-1165, 2013.

Felzer, Karen R., Adaptive smoothed seismicity model, Appendix M in The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF 3), The Time Indpendent Model, USGS Open File Report 2013-1165, 2013.

Felzer, Karen R., The empirical model, Appendix Q in the Uniform Calfiornia Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF 3), The Time Indepdendent Model, USGS Open File Report 2013-1165, 2013.

Felzer, Karen R. and Debi Kilb, A case study of two M ~5 mainshocks in Anza, California: Is the footprint of an aftershock sequence larger than we think? Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America , 99, 2721-2735, 2009.
manuscript in pdf

Felzer, Karen R., Simulated aftershock sequences for a M 7.8 earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault, Seism. Res. Lett., 80, 21--25, 2008.
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Gomberg, J. and K. Felzer, A model of earthquake triggering probabilities and application to dynamic deformations constrained by ground motion observations, J. Geophys. Res., 113, B10317, doi:10.1029/2007JB005184, 2008.
manuscript in pdf

Hardebeck, J. L., K. R. Felzer, and A. J. Michael, Improved test results reveal that the accelerating moment release hypothesis is statistically insignificant, J. Geophys. Res., 113, B08310, doi:10.1029/2007JB005410, 2008.
manuscript in pdf

Felzer, K. R. and Cao, Tianqing, WGCEP Historical California earthuake catalog, Appendix H in The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2): U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2007-1437H and California Geological Survey Special Report 203H, 127 pp., 2008.
document in pdf
WGCEP Appendix H California Region 1850-2006 Catalog in ascii format

Felzer, K. R., Calculating California seismicity rates, Appendix I in The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Foreast, version 2 (UCERF 2): U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2007-1437I and California Geological Survey Special Report 203I, 42 pp., 2008.
document in pdf

Felzer, K. R., Empirical estimation of regional time variation in seismicity rates, Appendix M in The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2): U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2007-1437M and California Geological Survey Special Report 203M, 19 pp., 2008.
document in pdf

Felzer, K. R. and E. E. Brodsky, Decay of aftershock density with distance indicates triggering by dynamic stress, Nature , 441, 735-738, 2006.
Self-formatted copies of the paper
article in pdf
Supplementary Figures

If you have a personal or institutional subscription to Nature you can access the published version of the paper here

Felzer, K. R., and E. E. Brodsky, Testing the stress shadow hypothesis, Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, B05S09, doi:1029/2004JB003277, 2005.
abstract in html
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Felzer, K. R., R. E. Abercrombie, and G. Ekström, A Common Origin for Aftershocks, Foreshocks, and Multiplets, Bull. Seis. Soc. Am. , 94, 88-99, 2004.
abstract in html
article in pdf

Felzer, K. R., R. E. Abercrombie, and G. Ekström, Secondary aftershocks and their importance for aftershock prediction, Bull. Seis. Soc. Am., 93, 1433-1448, 2003.
abstract in html
article in pdf

Felzer, K. R., T. W. Becker, R. E. Abercrombie, G. Ekström, and J. R. Rice, Triggering of the 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake by aftershocks of the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 2190, doi:10.1029/2001JB000911, 2002.
abstract in html
article in pdf

Abercrombie, R. E., Antolik, M. A., Felzer, K. R., and G. Ekström, G., The 1994 Java earthquake: slip over a subducting seamount, J. Geophys. Res., 106, 6595-6608, 2001. abstract

Felzer, K. R., and G. C. Beroza, Deep Structure of a fault discontinuity, Geophysical Res. Letters, 26, 2121-2124, 1999. web link

Conference Abstracts

Click here for a list and links
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Online Talks


Seminar given at USGS headquarters in Reston, VA, October 2012:
The pulverization hypothesis of aftershock triggering, mainshock propagation, and why we can't predict earthquakes

USGS Public Lecture, 2011:
Aftershocks, foreshocks, and multiplets: The science and history of earthquake clustering

Cal Poly physics seminar, 2008:
Why Earthqukes Cannot be Predicted

SCEHAP Conference, 2007:
Universality of the Gutenberg-Richter Relationship

CalTech SeismoLab Seminar, January 2007:
The Wonderful World of Aftershocks

American Geophysical Union Meeting 2006:
Calculating the Gutenberg-Richter b Value

American Geophysical Union Meeting 2005:
Stress Change Amplitude Does Not Affect Aftershock Timing

Seismological Society of America Meeting 2005:
Decay rate of aftershock density with distance from the mainshock
Covers observations and physical implications of aftershock spatial decay

American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, 2002:
"A Common Origin for Aftershocks, Foreshocks, and Multiplets"




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Teaching Experience

Lecturer for summer school at UCLA: ESS 8, Earthquakes Course website

Grad School Teaching Experience
Fall 2001 Head Teaching Fellow for Professor Göran Ekström for Science A43, Environmental Risks and Disasters .
Fall 2000 Teaching Fellow for Science A43
Fall 1999 Teaching Fellow for Science A43
Spring 1999 Teaching Fellow for Earth and Planetary Sciences 6: Introduction to Environmental Science: The Solid Earth, with Professor Göran Ekström

Resources for students

Recommended reading list for students interested in learning about earthquake interaction, triggering, and aftershocks References given in bibtex format.



kfelzer at gps.caltech.edu

office phone: 626-583-7822

U. S. Geological Survey, 525 S. Wilson, Pasadena, CA 91106

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Work in progress items, for pick-up by co-authors only!! thank you!

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Last modified: May, 2008